NiMet Forecasts Longer Rainfall in Lagos, 12 States, Warns of Severe Dry Spells in 2026

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has projected extended rainfall duration in Lagos and 12 other States in 2026, even as it warned of severe dry spells in parts of Oyo and Ogun States.

Global Mirror News reports that the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), unveiled in Abuja by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, outlined significant shifts in rainfall patterns across the Country, with implications for Agriculture, Aviation, Water Resources, and Disaster Management.

According to NiMet, States expected to experience longer rainy seasons include Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba. In contrast, Borno, Yobe, and Niger States are likely to witness shorter rainfall periods.

The Agency further predicted severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days between March and May in parts of Oyo and Ogun States. Moderate dry spells are anticipated across Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kwara and Kogi States.

On the “Little Dry Season” (LDS), commonly known as the August Break, NiMet forecast that it would commence in late July and be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo States, lasting between 28 and 40 days with little or no rainfall. Ondo, as well as parts of Kwara and Edo States, are expected to experience a moderate LDS.

Global Mirror News gathered that during the June–August period, severe dry spells of up to 21 days are projected in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States.

The SCP also indicated early rainfall onset in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States, while Borno is expected to record a late onset. Rainfall cessation is projected to occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States, while Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna may witness delayed end-of-season rains.

NiMet noted that most parts of Nigeria would record normal annual rainfall totals. However, above-normal rainfall is forecast for Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States.

The Agency also warned that daytime and nighttime temperatures in January, February, March, and May 2026 would likely exceed long-term averages Nationwide.

Advising farmers and stakeholders, NiMet cautioned against assuming that early significant rainfall signals the official onset of the rainy season, urging adherence to predicted onset dates or consultation with the Agency for proper guidance.

The Minister emphasized that climate variability and climate change have far-reaching implications for aviation safety, national security, food security, infrastructure resilience, and livelihoods. He described accurate and timely weather information as critical to economic stability and sustainable National development.

NiMet Director-General and Permanent Representative to the World Meteorological Organisation, Prof. Charles Anosike, reaffirmed the Agency’s commitment to downscaling the 2026 SCP to grassroots farmers and expanding digital advisory services in collaboration with local and international partners.

He stressed the need for stronger partnerships with state governments and stakeholders to ensure broader dissemination of climate information.

NiMet, he added, remains committed to delivering reliable and timely meteorological services to support a climate-resilient Nigerian economy.